Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
